Same Player, Same Bet, Rather Different Prices

Aboubakary Koita — 3+ fouls committed
Manchester City v AEK Athens
Ladbrokes: 3.70 / 27/10 at the time of the screenshot

Using the dashboard’s price-disparity section—which highlights bookmakers having a fairly substantial disagreement—I’ve landed on Aboubakary Koita to commit three or more fouls against Manchester City.

Ladbrokes have it at 3.70. Bet365 have the same line at 2.20.

Koita has hit three or more fouls in seven of the last 20 games shown. That’s 35%, which works out at roughly 2.86 in decimal odds. Ladbrokes’ 3.70 needs it to happen about 27% of the time to break even.

On that crude comparison, there’s something worth looking at.

The more recent figures are interesting too: six from ten and three from five. Those overlap with the last 20, obviously. We haven’t discovered three separate pieces of evidence just by making the sample smaller.

What makes it more appealing to me is the change in opposition.

My thinking is that AEK’s domestic games, where they’re often the stronger side, won’t necessarily ask the same questions as a trip to Manchester City. I expect considerably more chasing and defending here.

And chasing people who are better at keeping the ball can end with you deciding that kicking their leg is the simpler option.

That’s the angle. The historical numbers give me a starting point, the likely game gives me a reason to investigate further, and the difference between the bookmakers gives me a price worth considering.

It still needs Koita on the pitch for enough minutes, and the domestic-versus-European argument is my reading of the game—not a measured uplift I can simply add to his hit rate.

But at the 3.70 shown, this is the sort of disagreement I built the dashboard to find.